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Evidence Note · Traceability
7 min · 2026-02-28

Battery traceability drift test: when passports, permits, and logistics stop agreeing

A traceability claim can be correct on paper and still fail under timeline pressure. This note shows how drift appears across permits, shipments, and enforcement windows.

TraceabilityBatteriesRegulatorySupply chain

The problem

Battery traceability is often evaluated as a snapshot: a passport, a supplier declaration, a spreadsheet of chain-of-custody fields. The failure mode is temporal: permits lag, shipments move, enforcement accelerates. Drift appears when claims remain static while the underlying record changes.

Scenario (redacted)

Trigger
OEM requires proof of compliant sourcing and processing chain for a battery input.
Claim
Supplier asserts compliant origin + processing capacity already commissioned.
Risk
Passport fields appear complete, but time-alignment may be absent during key windows.
Output
Chronology + divergence matrix + exportable evidence index (PDF + JSON).

Where drift shows up (T0 → T3)

T0 · Q2 2023
Passport submitted
Unverified
Reported

Chain-of-custody fields complete. Origin and processing site declared.

Observed

No independent contradiction at submission time.

Missing verification

Independent confirmation that processing capacity is commissioned.

T1 · Q4 2023
Permitting timeline diverges
Gap
Reported

No disclosure of permitting dependency for processing scale-up.

Observed

Public registry shows expansion permit still pending.

Missing verification

Linkage between claimed output and required permit issuance.

T2 · Q1 2024
Logistics signals conflict
Contradiction
Reported

Shipment manifests imply steady compliant throughput.

Observed

Observed flows suggest substitution / routing changes inconsistent with declared processing site.

Missing verification

Supporting records explaining routing change (contracting, subcontracting, or interim processing).

T3 · Q3 2024
Enforcement window approaches
Gap
Reported

Supplier maintains unchanged declaration.

Observed

Regulatory guidance/enforcement timeline converges; documentation gaps become material.

Missing verification

A defensible reconciled record for audit/review.

Evidence layers used

Government & registries
  • Permit registries
  • Corporate filings
  • Regulatory guidance and notices
Commercial record
  • Passports / declarations
  • Contracts and annexes
  • Shipment manifests (where available)
Independent signals
  • Remote sensing where relevant
  • Press/hearings/transcripts (when material)
  • Third-party datasets (as appropriate)

Divergence matrix excerpt

DateClaimSignalImpactRef
2023-11Processing capacity commissionedPermit status pending; no issuance recordedTraceability certainty drops during high-volume periodEV-REG-019
2024-02Declared processing site handles throughputObserved routing change inconsistent with declared site throughputPotential substitution risk; requires explanation + docsEV-LOG-044

What a buyer can stand over

  • A single chronology showing what was claimed, what was observable, and what was missing at each point.
  • Stable evidence references suitable for audit, procurement governance, or diligence review.
  • Clear articulation of uncertainty bands (what is verified vs inferred vs absent).

Want this run on your supply chain?

A pilot is scoped to one category and one decision window. Output is a redacted pack with exportable references.